Guardiola leaves City: the psychology of knowing how to stop

"Don't ask me why. Deep down, I know it's my time." Behind the departure of Guardiola, the club's most successful manager, lies one of the most difficult—and most studied—decisions in psychology: recognizing when it's time to stop.

Sport Psychology Center | Popular Science Article | Reading Time: ~9 minutes

Manchester, May 22, 2026. Pep Guardiola announces he will leave City at the end of the season, bringing to a close a decade of dominance that has changed the face of English football. He had one year left on his contract, until 2027, but chose to leave twelve months early. The phrase he used to explain his decision is the ideal starting point for a psychological analysis: "Don't ask me why I'm leaving. There's no reason, but deep down I know it's my time. Nothing lasts forever."

At first glance, it's just another transfer news story. But if you look at it through the tools of decision-making psychology, Guardiola's departure speaks to something much more universal: the difficulty of choosing when to stop. One point needs to be clarified, in fairness: Guardiola is leaving City at a time when they're not exactly at the height of their league dominance—City haven't won the Premier League in two seasons and finished second to Arsenal this year. But he still leaves as a winner, having won the domestic cup double (FA Cup and Carabao Cup) this season, with one year left on his contract, and with the club that would have gladly kept him. This is the psychologically interesting situation: not a departure forced by bankruptcy or dismissal, but a choice made when there were concrete reasons to stay. It is, paradoxically, one of the most difficult decisions a human being can make—and scientific research explains exactly why.

The numbers of an era (and why they make everything more difficult)

To understand the weight of the decision, we need the numbers. In ten years in Manchester, Guardiola has built a record that makes him the most successful manager in the club's history.

Here's the crux: the bigger what you've built, the harder it becomes to let go. Not for vague emotional reasons, but for a precise cognitive mechanism that decision-making psychology knows very well. This applies to a coach with twenty trophies, but also to a business manager, an established professional, or anyone who has invested years in a project. It's called the sunk cost fallacy.

The sunk cost trap

The sunk cost fallacy describes our tendency to pursue a venture simply because we've already invested time, energy, or money, regardless of whether it's worthwhile to continue. Sunk costs are resources already spent and cannot be recovered; yet, irrationally, they push us to increase our investment rather than soberly evaluate the present.

In career decisions, this bias is particularly insidious. As the Office of Intramural Training at the National Institutes of Health explains, it manifests when a person remains stuck on a path "because I'm too invested to stop," even when faced with new information that suggests otherwise. The solution, the authors suggest, is counterintuitive but liberating: lo spreco non è ciò che ti lasci alle spalle, è ciò che hai davanti se continui sulla strada sbagliata.

The most dangerous “combo”: hidden costs + identity

In her book Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away (2022), former poker champion and decision science researcher Annie Duke identifies the most subtle version of the trap: the combination of sunk costs and identity. It's not just the time invested that keeps us anchored, but what quitting "says about us." It's the reason people stay in prestigious but draining jobs, or keep pushing a project that doesn't work because "I'm not a quitter."

Duke reverses the perspective with a powerful statement: clinging to an outdated identity is the true act of surrender—it means giving up one's future self. In other words: quitting at the right time isn't weakness; it's the highest form of lucidity. And that's exactly what Guardiola's words seem to describe: "I know it's my moment" isn't the phrase of someone running away, but of someone who has recognized that their identity no longer coincides with the role they play.

Why the “how” you quit matters more than the “when”

There's a distinction that sports psychology has documented with particular clarity: it's not so much the timing of a decision that determines subsequent well-being, but rather the degree of autonomy with which one makes the decision. This is the heart of Deci and Ryan's Self-Determination Theory, applied specifically to late-career transitions.

The most significant study on this subject is titled, not surprisingly, "Letting Go of Gold": published in the Journal of Clinical Sport Psychology in 2020 by Holding, Fortin, and colleagues, it followed 158 recently retired elite athletes using a longitudinal design, administering two questionnaires 18 months apart. The result is clear: athletes who experienced retirement as an autonomous choice—motivated by internal reasons, personal values, and a sense of their own moment—made much greater progress in "disengagement" and reported higher levels of well-being about a year and a half later, compared to those who experienced retirement as something imposed or endured.

The same study also captures an important and honest truth: subjective well-being, which is extremely high at the peak of one's career, declines significantly in the two months following retirement, only to recover in the later stages. In other words, even the healthiest and most desired transition goes through a downturn. This isn't a failure: it's psychological physiology. Knowing this in advance is already part of the solution.

Guardiola's words, read in this context, are almost a manual of self-determination: "I leave with incredible peace for having given everything to Manchester City." Peace and having given everything are the two linguistic markers of an autonomous, not forced, decision – the best predictor, according to research, of a positive adaptation to what is to come.

Who are you when you are no longer “the coach”?

There is also a specific dimension that concerns elite coaches, which research has only recently begun to explore. The end of a coaching career isn't just a job change: it's a restructuring of identity. As with athletes, a top coach's professional identity tends to be exclusive—it almost entirely absorbs their sense of self—and this, paradoxically, is what made them successful and what makes them vulnerable when they leave.

A review published in 2024 in the International Sport Coaching Journal (Brown, “Elite Coaches’ role in Athletes’ retirement transitions”) and the studies collected by the ISSP Position Stand on career transitions (Stambulova, Ryba & Henriksen, 2021) converge on one point: the best-managed transitions are the planned ones, in which the person has built roles, interests, and affiliations outside of their primary role ahead of time. It's no coincidence that Guardiola isn't stepping into a vacuum: he already has a new role as a global ambassador for City Football Group, with technical advisory duties. It's a classic example of a "soft" transition, in which identity isn't amputated but reconfigured—exactly what the literature recommends.

The opposite risk is well documented: a survey by the Professional Players' Federation (PPF) of 800 former professional athletes, data from which was released by the BBC as part of the 2018 State of Sport investigation, found that more than half had experienced concerns about their mental and emotional well-being after retiring, and one in two felt no control over their lives within two years of the end of their career. The sample consisted of former rugby, cricket, and football players – athletes, therefore, not coaches – but the identity mechanism is similar for those who have lived sport from the sidelines for decades. Many former athletes, in that same survey, described retirement as a true "loss of identity."

Grit vs. Quit: The Courage to Not Persist

Our sports culture celebrates grit—determination, never giving up. It's a real and precious value. But decision research shows there's a dangerous flipside: the difficulty of abandoning a journey even when the data says it's time. Annie Duke sums it up this way: quitting at the right time almost always seems like quitting too soon, especially when you're "losing" or, conversely, when you're so high that there's no apparent reason to stop.

The most frequently cited metaphor in this context is that of mountaineering: so-called summit fever, which pushes climbers to continue toward the summit, ignoring danger signals, sometimes with fatal outcomes. The parallel with elite sports is direct: continuing "because you're almost at the top," or "because you've always won," can lead to a wear and tear that erodes the very thing you were trying to protect. Stopping at the summit, in this interpretation, isn't a renunciation: it's both the most rational and the most difficult decision.

What we can learn (even outside of football)

Guardiola's decision offers insights that are valuable beyond the bench—for athletes, managers, professionals, and anyone who must decide whether to continue or move on. Here are four:

1. Distinguish sunk costs from future value

The right question isn't "how much have I already invested?", but "if I were starting today, would I still choose this path?" It's the most effective way to counteract the sunk-cost fallacy in big life and career decisions.

2. Define exit criteria in advance

Annie Duke suggests establishing kill criteria—conditions decided on calmly that, if met, signal it's time to stop. Deciding "before" protects against the emotional distortions of "during."

3. Cultivate a plural identity

Those who have roles, relationships, and interests outside their core role navigate career transitions better. An exclusive identity is a powerful but fragile fuel: it must be supported, in time, by other affiliations.

4. Seek autonomous choice, not imposed choice

The "Letting Go of Gold" study is clear: those who make independent decisions experience healthier transitions. Whenever possible, it's better to choose your own moment than to let events dictate it. And knowing that a period of emotional downturn is normal helps you navigate it without interpreting it as a mistake.

La forza di dire “è il mio momento”

"Nothing lasts forever," Guardiola said. It's a phrase that sounds melancholic, but interpreted through the tools of psychology, it's almost an act of mental health: the clear-eyed recognition that every cycle has an end, and that managing it with awareness is better than denying it. Decision-making psychology and sports psychology converge on a point that our performance culture struggles to accept: knowing how to stop at the peak is a skill, not a surrender. It requires clarity to recognize the hidden costs, courage to face identity change, and autonomy in making choices.

Whether it's a coach with twenty trophies, an athlete at a career crossroads, or a professional facing a turning point, the principle is the same. And the good news is that this skill can be trained: with the right support, deciding when and how to move on becomes a conscious process, not a leap in the dark.

References and sources

All statements and data reported in this article are verifiable through public sources, official reports, and peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Scientific studies and academic sources

• Brown, C.J. (2024). Elite Coaches’ role in Athletes’ retirement transitions: a Foucauldian discourse analysis. International Sport Coaching Journal. DOI:10.1123/iscj.2023-0076.
• Duke, A. (2022). Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. Portfolio/Penguin. Sunk cost fallacy, kill criteria e rapporto tra identità e decisione di abbandonare.
• Holding, A., Fortin, J.-A., Carpentier, J., Hope, N., & Koestner, R. (2020). Letting Go of Gold: Examining the Role of Autonomy in Elite Athletes’ Disengagement From Their Athletic Careers and Well-Being in Retirement. Journal of Clinical Sport Psychology, 14(1), 88-108. DOI:10.1123/jcsp.2018-0029. Studio longitudinale (McGill University) su 158 atleti d’élite.
• National Institutes of Health – OITE (2025). Sunk Cost Fallacy – How It Affects Career Decision-Making. Office of Intramural Training & Education.
• Park, S., Tod, D., & Lavallee, D. (2012). Exploring the retirement from sport decision-making process based on the transtheoretical model. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 13(4), 444-453. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1469029212000222
• Stambulova, N., Ryba, T.V., & Henriksen, K. (2021). Career development and transitions of athletes: the ISSP Position Stand Revisited. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 19(4), 524-550.
• Tait, V., & Miller, H.L. Jr. (2019). Loss aversion as a potential factor in the sunk-cost fallacy. International Journal of Psychological Research, 12(2), 8-16.
• Professional Players’ Federation / BBC Sport (2018). State of Sport 2018: Half of retired sportspeople have concerns over mental and emotional wellbeing. Survey su 800 ex sportivi (rugby, cricket, calcio); uno su due non si sentiva in controllo della propria vita entro due anni dal ritiro.

Statements and journalistic sources

• Manchester City FC (22 maggio 2026). “Pep Guardiola official announcement” e “in his own words”. Comunicato ufficiale e dichiarazioni integrali.
• ESPN (22 maggio 2026). “Pep Guardiola to step down as Man City boss at end of season”. Dettagli su contratto, palmares e successione. https://global.espn.com/football/story/_/id/48813681/pep-guardiola-step-man-city-boss-end-season
• Associated Press / US News (22 maggio 2026). “Guardiola to Leave Manchester City After Season”. Dichiarazione “Nothing is eternal”.
• Yahoo Sports (22 maggio 2026). “Pep Guardiola confirms he is leaving Manchester City this summer”. Uscita anticipata e Maresca favorito.
• FotMob (22 maggio 2026). “Guardiola: I’m leaving with incredible peace that I gave everything to Man City”.

Editorial note. This article is for informational purposes only and in no way replaces a clinical evaluation or professional sports psychology training. For personalized consultations for athletes, sports teams, or coaching staff, contact Sport Psychology Center through the official website.