«È già fatta?» La psicologia dell’ultimo passo, tra Antonelli e Marquez

Two match points, two ways of approaching the finish line: what the research says about tension, sleep and process goals.

01 · The episode: a title with four races to spare, amid tears

On 1 November 2026, in Mexico City, Kimi Antonelli became Formula 1 world champion with third place in the Grand Prix won by Verstappen ahead of Hamilton. The title is mathematically secured with four races still to go: Antonelli stands, for now, on 380 points, with Verstappen on 261, Hamilton on 259 and his teammate Russell on 250. At twenty he is the youngest champion in history (the previous record belonged to Vettel, in 2010), the first born in the 2000s and the first Italian to win since Alberto Ascari in 1953, the third ever after Farina and Ascari himself. (Quotidiano.net, GPOne, Fanpage)

The race was eventful, with a penalty for Leclerc, a red flag for Bottas’s accident and two restarts. Antonelli, who started from the second row, finished a little over four seconds behind the winner. The moment that struck people most came after the finish line: on the radio he burst into tears, first with his track engineer, then with Toto Wolff, and in Sky’s interview he said that on the last lap “I couldn’t see the track for the tears”. (Gazzetta della Spezia, Mowmag)

If the race closed the story, the weekend had prepared it with a tension that Antonelli did not hide. That is where it makes sense to start.

02 · “Is it already done?”: the pressure on whoever is expected to win

After an unremarkable qualifying (fifth fastest, fourth on the grid because of Verstappen’s penalty), Antonelli had said he kept hearing everywhere that the championship was as good as done, and that at that moment he had a fever and a lot of tension (Automoto.it). The title, at that point, depended on a modest result: a ninth place was enough, regardless of the others.

When an outcome seems a foregone conclusion, the nature of the pressure changes. It is no longer “will I manage to win?”, but “I must not disappoint what everyone already takes for granted”. It must be said clearly that this is an interpretive reading and not a research finding: none of the studies cited in this article measures the effect in drivers. It is, however, consistent with what Antonelli said, and with a simple observation: closing a championship four races early, at twenty, is a task in itself, different from winning a race.

When everyone says it is already done, the task is not to win: it is not to let that sentence steer you.

03 · Tension: anxiety or excitement?

Antonelli stated his tension openly, before and after the race. It is a more important detail than it seems, because research on pre-performance anxiety management suggests that trying to calm down is not the most effective strategy. Alison Wood Brooks, in a series of experiments, observed that the vast majority of people believe the best way to handle anxiety is to “try to calm down”, but that those who reframe their arousal as excitement feel more excited and perform better than those who try to calm down (Brooks, 2014).

The proposed mechanism is simple: anxiety and excitement are both high-arousal states, so it is easier to change the label than to switch the arousal off. The strategies used were minimal, such as saying out loud “I am excited”. With an important caveat: the experiments involved karaoke, public speaking and maths, not sport. We do not know whether Antonelli uses reframing techniques. We know that he called the tension by its name, and that this is consistent with what the research suggests doing.

04 · The eve: sleep before the race that matters

On the eve Antonelli had described his recipe: ten hours of sleep and, according to reports, the use of melatonin (Automoto.it). The reference scientific finding is a different one. A study by Juliff, Halson and Peiffer on 283 elite Australian athletes found that 64% reported having slept worse at least once in the nights before an important competition in the previous twelve months. The problem was situational, tied to the competition and not to a general sleep disorder, and most athletes did not know strategies to remedy it: 59% of those in team sports, against 33% in individual sports (Juliff et al., 2015).

A warning: this is not advice on using melatonin, which is not the subject of these studies and should be assessed with a doctor. The useful point is another one. Sleeping badly before a decisive appointment is normal, and having a plan for the night before, as those who prepare methodically do, is part of the preparation and not a detail.

05 · The process, not the result

If tension is unavoidable, the question is where to direct attention. A meta-analysis by Williamson and colleagues of 27 goal-setting studies in sport found that process goals, that is the behaviours to put in place, had the largest effect on performance (d = 1.36), far more than performance goals (0.44) and outcome goals (0.09). Process goals also showed a large effect on self-efficacy (Williamson et al., 2024). A result in line with a classic study on golfers, in which those who trained on process goals improved anxiety control and self-efficacy compared with those who worked only on performance goals (Kingston and Hardy, 1997).

The same caution applies here: the authors of the meta-analysis themselves point out that for psychological outcomes there is not enough cross-evidence, and none of these studies concerns racing. We do not know which process goals Antonelli had. We know that one report described his race as attentive and thoughtful, completed without taking risks, although an overtake on Leclerc was not missing (Adnkronos). It is an indication compatible with attention on the task more than on the title, not proof.

06 · The second level: Marquez at Sepang

A few hours earlier, at Sepang, Marc Marquez had won the Malaysian Grand Prix, dominating it from the first corner, where he passed his brother Alex, to the finish, with over four seconds over Acosta. With 399 points, he is 44 points ahead of Martin and 67 ahead of Bezzecchi. In Qatar, on 6-8 November, he will have his first match point: the title will be his if he gains 30 points on Martin and 8 on Bezzecchi. It would be his eighth MotoGP title, the tenth of his career across all classes (Sky Sport, Quotidiano.net, DiarioDelWeb).

On the eve Marquez had said that everything now depended on him and that it was time to take risks, while some commentators suggested settling for a good finish (GPOne, OA Sport).

After the race he explained that the aim was to stay in the lead from the start to the chequered flag (Motorinolimits). It is not a process goal in the strict sense, but it is a concrete goal, tied to the race and not to the title: it shifts attention from the championship to Sunday’s task. Martin, meanwhile, had tried to get on track in the first days and then chose to give up the weekend because of the fracture suffered at Phillip Island: a decision that is part of the same story, because in these moments knowing when to stop is as much a skill as knowing when to push.

07 · Practical implications: four indications for those who coach

The indications that follow are operational applications of the results cited, not the result of a study on Formula 1 or MotoGP.

1. Say the tension and give it a name. Before a decisive appointment, instead of asking the athlete to calm down, help them recognise and reframe the arousal: “it is energy, not a problem”. The studies cited suggest that this works better than the order to relax.
2. Set one or two process goals for the final phase. Precise behaviours (position, rhythm, management of the first metres) that do not change with the score. The result stays in the background.
3. Separate the outside story from the goal of the day. If everyone says it is already done, ask the athlete what today’s task is. Other people’s sentence is not a goal.
4. Plan the night before, as part of the race. Sleeping worse is common: the athlete must know in advance what they will do if it happens, without improvising.

08 · In closing: closing is a task, not a wait

For Wolff, with Antonelli the model of the ruthless driver “is dead” (Automoto.it). Without going that far, the championship shows something simple: a twenty-year-old who admits tension, names it, cries on the radio and wins. From the point of view of sport psychology the lesson is less romantic but more useful, more substantial.
A title is not won at the moment it becomes mathematical: it is won in the hours before, it is won in the days before, with the tension named, the night planned and attention on the task.


www.sportpsychologycenter.com

Scientific references

1. Brooks, A. W. (2014). Get excited: Reappraising pre-performance anxiety as excitement. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(3), 1144–1158. doi:10.1037/a0035325
2. Juliff, L. E., Halson, S. L., & Peiffer, J. J. (2015). Understanding sleep disturbance in athletes prior to important competitions. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 18(1), 13–18. doi:10.1016/j.jsams.2014.02.007
3. Williamson, O., Swann, C., Bennett, K. J. M., Bird, M. D., Goddard, S. G., Schweickle, M. J., & Jackman, P. C. (2024). The performance and psychological effects of goal setting in sport: A systematic review and meta-analysis. International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 17(2), 1050–1078. doi:10.1080/1750984X.2022.2116723
4. Kingston, K. M., & Hardy, L. (1997). Effects of different types of goals on processes that support performance. The Sport Psychologist, 11, 277–293.

Statements and journalistic sources

Reporting and statements, 1-2 November 2026: Quotidiano.net, GPOne, Fanpage.it, DiarioDelWeb.it, Adnkronos, Gazzetta della Spezia, Mowmag, Automoto.it, Sky Sport, Motorinolimits.com (Ducati press release), OA Sport (31 October 2026). The links are in the text, next to the claims they support.